Tokyo, 3 June, /AJMEDIA/
Japan may need to increase its annual defense costs to as much as 10 trillion yen from the current nearly 6 trillion yen to deal with China’s growing military threat, a Defense Ministry think tank says.
The National Institute for Defense Studies said in an annual report that the increase of over 4 trillion yen in spending is not necessarily big considering the tremendous economic damage Japan could face if deterrence against China fails and a conflict arises between the two countries.
Japan, known for its pacifist Constitution, has long capped its defense budget at around 1 percent of gross domestic product, or about 5 trillion yen.
Japan’s defense budget was roughly the same in size as China in 2000, but 20 years later, it accounted for less than a fourth of Beijing’s expenditure, according to the report titled East Asian Strategic Review 2022.
The report came after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged to secure a “substantial increase” in Japan’s defense budget at a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden last week to strengthen Tokyo’s defense capabilities and alliance with Washington.
Japan’s fiscal health, meanwhile, has been the worst among major developed nations, with its public debt over 1,200 trillion yen as of March this year, more than double its annual GDP.
The institute added that the government needs to “consider how to strike a balance” between the risks of financial collapse and deterrence failure.
Japan’s defense costs mentioned in the report exclude outlays related to reducing the burden on the southern island prefecture of Okinawa in hosting the bulk of U.S. forces.
In April, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party asked Kishida to consider doubling Japan’s defense budget to an amount on par with 2 percent of GDP or more, a numerical target for North Atlantic Treaty Organization nations. The request was in a set of LDP’s proposals for revising the government’s National Security Strategy.
The long-term security guideline, originally approved by the Cabinet in late 2013, is expected to be updated by the end of this year amid China’s maritime assertiveness in the region and North Korea’s missile and nuclear threats.
The institute pointed out that China has been reinforcing its relations with Russia and developing countries to compete against Western nations while putting more military pressure on Japan and Taiwan.
“Due to the escalating confrontation between China-Russia and the United States, the age of ‘great power competition’ has come again,” and Japan “cannot take a stance of onlooker,” the report said.
The think tank also released an additional volume on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It projected that the war will be lengthy, warning that closer ties between Russia and China may “deepen the split not only with the United States but also with the international community.”
